At 10:00 on February 25th, MT website stopped operations.
A so-called bankruptcy reorganization plan came out later on the internet, I feel this is mostly a fake one.
Let’s analyze this MT event from scratch, and try to explain from two perspectives: common sense and conspiracy theory, this way we can see the whole process clearly.
1．At the beginning, only a small amount of Bitcoin withdrawal failed, and then gradually, all Bitcoin could not be withdrawn.
Common sense:
MT is the first trading center of BTC in the world which has survived strong wind and big waves, how could it possibly fail on this small matter? It must be man-made
If MT found the coins had been stolen, it should have immediately ceased withdrawal and transaction to conduct a thorough investigation. If the loss is too large, MT should immediately apply for bankruptcy protection. There is no reason for MT to deliberately postpone tackling this problem.
Conspiracy Theory:
The market maker created panic by failure of Bitcoin withdrawal, and created the overall slump by making use of MT\\\'s leading position.
Because Bitcoin holders usually don’t sell unless major bad news emerges, so the market maker has to choose this way to force them to sell.
2. “Tampered HASH problem” proposed by MT
Common sense:
I pointed out before that it’s just a little BUG; it is just HASH that is tampered, not the transfer. Transfers can be done properly. But the reality is that BTC applied for withdrawal from MT didn’t reach the intended address at all, so MT was lying.
Even if what MT said is true, MT\\\'s document clearly stated that the possibility of this kind of incidence is around 50%, but the reality is: all coins failed to be withdrawn, which in turn proves that MT was lying.
Conspiracy Theory:
By posing a technical question, they create panic to scare newbies. Yes, they succeeded. Someone in the BTC-E thought BTC had a problem and sold coins as low as $ 100. For those who understand bitcoin, it is like dumping a car because its wipers are broken. But the problem is, few people really understand Bitcoin, and because there is no government authority in Bitcoin community, people do not know who is to trust and believe. Once MT indicated there is a problem, the market maker would certainly forward the message everywhere, and hire people to post in forums, newbies just didn’t know what to make of it and panic.
3. Price down to $ 100
Common sense:
People in MT know they can’t withdraw their USD (this happened earlier before the BTC withdrawal problem), so it’s useless to sell coins.
Normal people can possibly sell their coins at a price 30%-50% lower than the outside, but if the price is 80% lower, then selling coins doesn’t make sense.
Conspiracy Theory:
Since MT goes wrong, few people dare to charge USD inside to buy coins.
Money inside MT is not that patient to wait until the price reaches 100, they are basically fully-loaded at around 500.
This way, when the retail invertors’ money runs out in MT, the market maker would spare no efforts to punch the market and sell low without worrying about losing coins.
By punching market in MT, the market maker also punches in Bitstamp, causing panic among retail investors and grab the coins out of their hands.
4. Bankruptcy reorganization plan of MT
4.1 information release
Common sense:
No matter what happens, they should release the information on their official website, but their official website is blank.
Conspiracy Theory:
Official website stopped, by sending grapevines through informal channels, they can deny the rumor through official channels later.
4.2 the time of website shut down
Common sense:
Generally, such a major decision should be planed for a long time, the execution time will either be during working hours or the time when people are at home, rather than the moment between these two.
Conspiracy Theory:
11:00 Japan time is just the time American people go to bed. During 11:00 ~ 16:00 (Japan time), the Europeans and Americans are asleep, Chinese people rarely go to the foreign trading centers, so taking advantage of this time gap to punch the market is most cost-saving.
4.3 lots of BTC
Common sense:
When Bitcoin withdrawal problem first occurred, MT sad it is due to technical obstacles. Now, MT says all coins have been stolen, with only 2000 left.
Any shop will check its book every day, let alone a trading center. MT should have known the missing matter earlier than it said, it is lying through his teeth!
Conspiracy Theory:
The market maker is exaggerating facts by delivering grapevines, the more serious the matter sounds, the more panic they can create.
4.4 740,000 coins were lost
Common sense:
Coins failed to be withdrawn amounted to as many as 40,000. Because there is panic, most people will try to withdraw their coins. For a trading center, some BTC comes in while others goes out, if the withdrawal is blocked, together with the 10000 coins on the pending orders, the number of BTC is estimated to be no more than 100,000.
So “740,000 coins lost” is utter nonsense!
Conspiracy Theory:
In order to scare people, they exaggerated the fact as much as possible; it may be ten times higher than the real figure.
Conclusion:
Common sense:
The entire MT matter has so many flaws and MT can not make it sound plausible.
Conspiracy Theory:
Creating panic by MT event to grab coins from firm holders.
Reasoning:
MT website will suddenly return to normal one day, and claim that people can withdraw their BTC. And they would explain that the website shut down because of protesters’ interference in its server. They would also clarify rumors.